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Prediction for CME (2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-10-16T12:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27320/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is C7.5 class flare starting at 2023-10-16T10:31Z and associated eruption. The flare can be best seen in SDO AIA 131/193, opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171/193, and dimming and post eruptive loops are also seen in SDO AIA 193. Arrival Signature: Characterized by a weak amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching 10nT at 2023-10-20T12:38Z. Subsequent increases were observed in density and temperature. This was followed by a rotation in magnetic field components during which an extended period of negative Bz was observed from around 2023-10-20T17:30Z to 2023-10-21T08:00Z. This arrival signature may be reflective of a weak arrival/glancing blow from CME: 2023-10-16T12:09Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-10-20T07:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-10-20T14:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 35.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2023 Oct 18 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 31018
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Oct 2023, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Oct 2023  10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Oct 2023  10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Oct 2023  10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 011

Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at low
levels. There are currently three numbered active regions on the solar
disk. The region on the north east limb is not yet numbered and remains
very small and simple. NOAA AR3465 is the most complex region on the disk,
but has been quiet. The remaining regions were mostly simple and were
quiet. NOAA AR3463 decayed into a plage region. The solar flaring activity
is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares
likely and a low chance for isolated M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) reported yesterday,
first observed from 05:17 UTC in SOHO/LASCO-C2 to the south-west is
predicted to be mostly directed to the south of the Sun-Earth line. The CME
is also relatively slow (around 400 km/s) but may have a glancing blow at
Earth late on October 21. A wide partial halo CME, seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2
from 02:30 UT October 18 - directed mostly to the north-east, is determined
to be back-sided and will not impact Earth.

Solar wind: The solar wind parameters reflected a slow solar wind regime at
the start of the period. From 02:30 UTC on October 18, the solar wind
parameters showed the likely influence of the solar wind from the positive
polarity coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on October 14.
The interplanetary magnetic field increased, reaching 10nT by 11 UTC. Bz
had a minimum value of -9 nT. The solar wind speed increased from 300 km/s
to near 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation switched
from the predominantly in the negative sector to the positive sector (field
directed away from Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain
slightly enhanced over the next days under the influence of a weak high-
speed stream. Additionally further enhancements may be possible on October
20 due to the glancing blow predicted for the CME of October 16.

Geomagnetism: During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet
to unsettled levels (NOAA KP 1-2 and K Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on October 18. Active
intervals are also possible on October 20 due to the glancing blow
predicted for the CME of October 16.

Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES
proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the
next days.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below
the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain
below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was
at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels
for the next days.

Lead Time: 19.10 hour(s)
Difference: -6.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-10-19T12:24Z

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